In my humble opinion, the best snowstorm forecast was from Accuweather, as it was the only site to actually predict a snowfall amount for this storm approximatley 36 hours or more prior to the arrival of the storm, and it wasn't too far off the mark with a prediction of a little over 8 inches. All other sites provided limited data in the actual forecasts as to actual snow depth forecasts.
The National Weather Service provided a very accurate forecast once the storm got within about 24 hours of arrival. The local news stations provided very broad predictions and werent too far off, although they went over a little I believe, as several, if not a majority of the towns, had less than 10 inches. Accuweather provided very specific information for each town, upgrading the predicted depth amount to about 10 inches, which is 3-4 inches less than what actually was measured at Windsor Locks. It also accurately predicted lesser amounts for areas where lesser snow fell. So I'm going with Accuweather for this particular storm.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Here's a map of snowfall totals for winter storm Adrianne for the NYC/NJ region, courtesy of the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/12/27/nyregion/20101227-snowfall-totals-map.html)
Final Storm Totals: Winter Storm Adrianne
Winter storm Adrianne didn't quite live up to its potential in my yard, but it did leave an impression with its high winds and powedery but very heavy snow (not as easy to shovel as anticipated). We received about 7-8 inches in Avon.
The most recent Adrianne snowfall totals from the National Weather Service:
The most recent Adrianne snowfall totals from the National Weather Service:
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENTCONNECTICUT
...HARTFORD COUNTY WINDSOR GLASTONBURY WETHERSFIELD SUFFIELD 9.5 808 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO MANCHESTER NEWINGTON SOUTH WINDSOR 8.0 420 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER GRANBY NORTH GRANBY 7.7 622 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER WEST HARTFORD 7.5 810 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO GRANBY ROCKY HILL 7.0 918 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO ENFIELD UNIONVILLE 6.1 434 PM 12/27 SPOTTER...TOLLAND COUNTY TOLLAND 10.2 346 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER STAFFORD 8.5 1146 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER STAFFORDVILLE 8.5 419 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER STAFFORD SPRINGS 8.3 253 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER UNION 7.3 809 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO SOMERS 6.3 844 AM 12/28 FINAL...WINDHAM COUNTY PLAINFIELD ASHFORD 5.0 127 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO...FAIRFIELD COUNTY WILTON NEW CANAAN 17.5 815 PM 12/27 CT DOT GREENWICH STRATFORD NORWALK WESTPORT DARIEN DANBURY BRIDGEPORT ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY WESTBROOK 9.5 1020 AM 12/27 PUBLIC OLD SAYBROOK 7.0 813 PM 12/27 CT DOT EAST HADDAM 6.5 1200 PM 12/27 PUBLIC...NEW HAVEN COUNTY MILFORD BEACON FALLS NEW HAVEN 13.0 815 PM 12/27 CT DOT SOUTHBURY 12.0 818 PM 12/27 CT DOT WATERBURY MERIDEN ...NEW LONDON COUNTY GALES FERRY 7.5 913 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 NNE NEWENT 7.5 1151 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER NORWICH COLCHESTER 6.5 812 PM 12/27 CT DOT GROTON LEDYARD CENTER 5.0 730 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTERMonday, December 27, 2010
Winter Storm Adrianne Connecticut Storm Totals
Here are some storm totals from the National Weather Service:
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** |
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS |
SNOWFALL OF |
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT |
|
... |
|
|
|
|
ROCKY HILL 7.0 918 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO |
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MARLBORO 5.3 942 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO |
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SUFFIELD 3.5 731 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO |
|
|
... |
STAFFORDVILLE 7.5 503 AM 12/27 SPOTTER |
TOLLAND 5.8 739 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO |
SOMERS 5.0 1110 PM 12/26 SPOTTER |
|
... |
EAST KILLINGLY 5.5 915 PM 12/26 SPOTTER |
EASTFORD 4.0 717 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO |
ASHFORD 4.0 900 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO |
DANIELSON 4.0 717 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO |
|
MOOSUP 3.0 500 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO |
POMFRET 3.0 603 PM 12/26 TRAINED SPOTTER |
|
... |
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COS COB 10.0 1100 PM 12/26 PUBLIC |
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|
|
NEW |
|
...NEW |
SOUTHBURY 11.0 950 PM 12/26 PUBLIC |
... |
|
***********************PEAK WIND GUST*********************** |
LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS |
GUST OF |
MPH MEASUREMENT |
|
... |
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|
... |
WILLIMANTIC 52 136 AM 12/27 ASOS |
... |
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...NEW |
NEW HAVEN 60 1201 AM 12/27 ASOS |
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LIGHTHOUSE POINT 40 1144 PM 12/26 MESONET |
... |
NEW |
|
***********************SUSTAINED WIND*********************** |
LOCATION WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS |
SPEED OF |
MPH MEASUREMENT |
|
... |
|
|
... |
WILLIMANTIC 36 1100 PM 12/26 ASOS |
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Post Christmas 2010 Snowstorm Forecasts (Winter Storm Adrianne)
Overall, all of the forecasting sites, local and national, have waffled on this forecast throughout the last week, with computer models giving variable predictions. They have wavered between a large storm hitting all the major northeast corridors to more of a glancing blow. Below are the online forecasts as of 6:40AM. I will be using Bradley International Airport as the source for each forecast. As you will see, not many of these sites have gone out on a limb in terms of predicting snow depth amounts 36 hours out. I will update this post later with their updates.
Update (1:03PM): No significant change in any of the forecasts reviewed, although there tends to be more of a consensus of a major winter storm affecting most of the northeast.
Additional updates posted below. Blizzard warning for southern portions of the state and winter storm warning for remainder of the state.
NWS
Sunday: 50% chance of snow after 11AM, less than 1/2 inch accumulation (upgraded to 2-4 inches as of 430pm)
Sunday night: Snow likely (70%) (9-13 inches predicted as of 430pm)
Monday: Snow likely before 1PM
Intellicast
Sunday: PM snow and wind; 1-3 inches. (1-2 inches as of 430pm) (2-4 inches at 10PM)
Sunday evening: Periods of snow and windy. Significant snow accumulation possible. (6-10 inches as of 10PM)
Monday: cloudy with snow
Accuweather
Sunday: snow showers in the afternoon
Sunday night: Varying accumulating snow; 4-8 inches
Monday: Snow tapering off with an addition 1-2 inches
Total snow accumulation predicted: 8.4 inches
Update at 4:30: Neglible; total amount upgraded to 9.3 inches.
10:00pm Update: Snow late Sunday afternoon with morning blizzard; 10.2 inches predicted
Weather Channel
Sunday: Snow flurries becoming steadier with 1-3 inches (1-2 inches as of 430pm) (2-4 inches as of 10PM)
Sunday night: periods of snow and windy; significant snow accumulation possible (6-10 inches as of 430pm)
Monday: cloudy and windy with snow
Weather Underground
Sunday: cloudy with 50% chance of snow
Sunday night: snow likely (70%)
Monday: Snow likely
WFSB (CBS)
Sunday: snow developing during the afternoon and could become heavy at times at night.
Monday: Snowy and windy in the morning, ending in the afternoon
Update 430pm: WFSB names the storm Adrianne and characterizes it as a bomb with 10-20 inches total accumulation with 2 feet possible locally and 2-5 foot snow drifts!
WVIT (NBC)
Sunday: Snow developing, becoming heavy at times during the night. Significant accumulation possible
Monday: Snow, possibly heavy at times; significant accumulation possible.
Update as of 10PM: Snow becoming heavy at times on Sunday with wind gusts over 30mph. Snow continuing through Sunday night with heavy snow into noon Monday. Total possible accumulation of 12-18 inches with 20 inches to 2 feet locally.
WTNH (ABC)
Sunday: Snow developing after 4pm
Sunday night: Snow, sleet, and freezing rain, accumulating 1-3 inches, then 4-6 inches overnight
430pm Update: Site is difficult to follow, but they appear to be predicting total accumulation of about 8-12 inches for inland areas and greater amounts closer to the shore.
FOX61
Sunday: Increasing clouds, chance of snow at night
Monday: Chance of snow.
Update (4:30PM): Nothing online, but radio update calls for possible blizzard with 10-20 inches.
Update (1:03PM): No significant change in any of the forecasts reviewed, although there tends to be more of a consensus of a major winter storm affecting most of the northeast.
Additional updates posted below. Blizzard warning for southern portions of the state and winter storm warning for remainder of the state.
NWS
Sunday: 50% chance of snow after 11AM, less than 1/2 inch accumulation (upgraded to 2-4 inches as of 430pm)
Sunday night: Snow likely (70%) (9-13 inches predicted as of 430pm)
Monday: Snow likely before 1PM
Intellicast
Sunday: PM snow and wind; 1-3 inches. (1-2 inches as of 430pm) (2-4 inches at 10PM)
Sunday evening: Periods of snow and windy. Significant snow accumulation possible. (6-10 inches as of 10PM)
Monday: cloudy with snow
Accuweather
Sunday: snow showers in the afternoon
Sunday night: Varying accumulating snow; 4-8 inches
Monday: Snow tapering off with an addition 1-2 inches
Total snow accumulation predicted: 8.4 inches
Update at 4:30: Neglible; total amount upgraded to 9.3 inches.
10:00pm Update: Snow late Sunday afternoon with morning blizzard; 10.2 inches predicted
Weather Channel
Sunday: Snow flurries becoming steadier with 1-3 inches (1-2 inches as of 430pm) (2-4 inches as of 10PM)
Sunday night: periods of snow and windy; significant snow accumulation possible (6-10 inches as of 430pm)
Monday: cloudy and windy with snow
Weather Underground
Sunday: cloudy with 50% chance of snow
Sunday night: snow likely (70%)
Monday: Snow likely
WFSB (CBS)
Sunday: snow developing during the afternoon and could become heavy at times at night.
Monday: Snowy and windy in the morning, ending in the afternoon
Update 430pm: WFSB names the storm Adrianne and characterizes it as a bomb with 10-20 inches total accumulation with 2 feet possible locally and 2-5 foot snow drifts!
WVIT (NBC)
Sunday: Snow developing, becoming heavy at times during the night. Significant accumulation possible
Monday: Snow, possibly heavy at times; significant accumulation possible.
Update as of 10PM: Snow becoming heavy at times on Sunday with wind gusts over 30mph. Snow continuing through Sunday night with heavy snow into noon Monday. Total possible accumulation of 12-18 inches with 20 inches to 2 feet locally.
WTNH (ABC)
Sunday: Snow developing after 4pm
Sunday night: Snow, sleet, and freezing rain, accumulating 1-3 inches, then 4-6 inches overnight
430pm Update: Site is difficult to follow, but they appear to be predicting total accumulation of about 8-12 inches for inland areas and greater amounts closer to the shore.
FOX61
Sunday: Increasing clouds, chance of snow at night
Monday: Chance of snow.
Update (4:30PM): Nothing online, but radio update calls for possible blizzard with 10-20 inches.
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