24 Hour Forecast

24 Hour Forecast

NWS	Snow Wednesday and Wed. night, with 6-10 inches accumulation
Weather Channel	Snow Wednesday (less than 1 inch) and Wed. night; 5-8 inches (6-12 for most of state on the forecast map, with exception of NW CT)
Intellicast	Snow Wednesday (less than 1 inch) and Wed. night; 5-8 inches
Wunderground	Essentially the same forecast as National Weather Service (6-10 inches)
Accuweather	Snow Wednesday with a coating-1 inch.  Snow Wed. night; 6-10 inches.  8.7 inches specifically predicted for Avon.  Interestingly, they predict 10.5 inches for Unionville, and 10.6 for West Hartford.
WFSB	Snow or mix Wednesday and all snow.  5-10 inches or 6-12 inches, depending on the track of the storm.
WVIT	Snow Wednesday afternoon, becoming heavy overnight.  4-8 inches in the southeast. 6-10 inches for most of the state, and 4-8 inches in  extreme northwestern CT
FOX CT	Snow and mixed precipitation Wednesday afternoon, and snow heavy at times Wednesday night with 6-12 inches across the state

Winter Storm Claire Totals and Forecast Winner

Below are the storm totals for winter storm Claire.  I measured 4 inches in Avon, which is consistent with what's reported from the National Weather Service.  So the verdict on best forecasts? 

National Weather Service had the most accurate longer range forecast amounts, predicting 4-8 inches about 72 hours prior to the storm arriving.  Accuweather predicted 1-3 inches.  All other sites I reviewed weren't able to predict an amount at that point. 

Strangely, NWS removed their prediction at about 48 hours out from the storm.  Accuweather predicted 3-6 inches with 4.3 inches for Avon.  WFSB predicted 5-10 inches and Fox predicted 6-12 inches.  Weather Channel predicted 1-3 inches.  Other sites didn't provide any prediction.  The clear winner 48 hours prior to the storms arrival is Accuweather. 

Many sites came together at the 24 hour mark, predicting about 2-6 inches.

Winner: Accuweather. 

While NWS had a better long term forecast in this instance, they seemed to back off a little, whereas Accuweather's overall provided a more consistent, and ultimately, accurate forecast in this case. 

Herer are the storm totals for Claire from the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

545 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 33 HOURS

FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.  APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED

TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS

AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.  THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR

HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS

                     SNOWFALL           OF

                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...HARTFORD COUNTY...

   SIMSBURY               6.0   829 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   WINDSOR LOCKS          5.6   120 PM  1/21  BRADLEY AIRPORT

   SUFFIELD               5.2   843 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   MANCHESTER             5.0  1041 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   SOUTH WINDSOR          5.0  1138 AM  1/21

   WEST HARTFORD          4.8   906 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   BURLINGTON             4.7   954 AM  1/21  TRAINED SPOTTER

   2 SW GRANBY            4.5   951 AM  1/21  NWS EMPLOYEE

   ENFIELD                4.5  1042 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   EAST HARTFORD          4.5  1037 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   WETHERSFIELD           4.0  1045 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   AVON                   4.0  1015 AM  1/21

   SOUTHINGTON            3.0   837 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

...TOLLAND COUNTY...

   TOLLAND                6.5  1233 PM  1/21

   STORRS                 6.5   910 AM  1/21  TRAINED SPOTTER

   COVENTRY               6.0  1229 PM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   STAFFORDVILLE          6.0  1101 AM  1/21  COOP OBSERVER

   STAFFORD SPRINGS       5.6  1122 AM  1/21

   ELLINGTON              5.0  1039 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   VERNON                 4.1  1038 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

...WINDHAM COUNTY...

   ASHFORD                7.0  1100 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   EAST KILLINGLY         6.1   248 PM  1/21

   WOODSTOCK              5.8   912 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   BROOKLYN               5.8  1117 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   PLAINFIELD             5.5  1154 AM  1/21  HAM RADIO

   MOOSUP                 5.2  1118 AM  1/21  GENERAL PUBLIC

It appears that most of the forecasts appear to be coming more into line with 2-6 amounts predicted generally.  Accuweather notably is predicting 6-10 inches on a forecast map for eastern portions of the state. 

24 Hour Forecast

NWS	Snow late Thursday (1-2 inches) night through Friday (no predicted amount)
Weather Channel	1-2 inches of snow Thursday night.  Periods of snow Friday.  No specific amount predicted other than 3-6 inches in a map forecast.
Intellicast	Snow Thursday night with 1-2 inches and periods of snow Friday (no prediction for Friday).
Wunderground	Snow Thursday night (1-3 inches) and Friday; no amounts provided for Friday.
Accuweather	Snow late Thursday (1-2 inches) and into Friday, with an additional 2-4 inches (4.3 predicted for Avon).  Recent map forecast says 3-6 for most of the state and 6-10 for eastern parts of the state (this appears to be an upgrade)
WFSB	Snow late Thursday into Friday.  2-6 inches (downgrade from 5-10 inches)
WVIT	A plowable amount of snow likely. 2-5 inches statewide.
FOX CT	Snow Friday, 3-6 inches (downgrade from 6-12 inches)

48 hour Forecast Summaries

As you can see, there's some variance among forecasts for those who tried to provide an actual amount.  A lot of uncertainty at this point due to, according to NWS, differences among computer models that could either result in a big storm or just a glancing blow. 

48 Hour Forecast

NWS	Snow late Thursday night through Friday; no predicted amount
Weather Channel	Periods of snow Friday.  Unclear amounts: appears to be stating 1-3 inches in general article discussion
Intellicast	Snow Thursday night with possible accumulation and periods of snow Friday.
Wunderground	Snow Thursday night and Friday; no amounts provided.
Accuweather	Snow late Thursday and into Friday: 3-6 inches total accumulation (4.3 predicted for Avon
WFSB	Snow late Thursday into Friday.  5-10 inches
WVIT	A plowable amount of snow likely.
FOX CT	snow likely; 6-12 inches

8 Day Plus Extended Forecast Summaries

I want to stress that on-the-air discussions might not always be included in the online forecasts, even though it would be nice if all pertinent discussion was.  I'm also noticing a pattern of the same forecasts coming out of WVIT, Weather Channel, and Intellicast, with Wunderground essentially provinding a forecast very similar to the National Weather Service.  

8 Day Plus Forecast

NWS	Nothing listed
Weather Channel	Snow shower 1/26 and 1/27
Intellicast	Snow showers 1/26 and 1/27
Wunderground	Nothing listed
Accuweather	Snow on 1/25 and 1/26
WFSB	Possible storm on 1/25 (noted in technical discussion section)
WVIT	Nothing listed
FOX CT	Nothing listed

72 Hour Forecast Summaries

72 Hour Forecast

NWS	Snow (4-8 inches) likely Thursday night and Friday morning
Weather Channel	Chance of a few snow showers
Intellicast	Chance for a few snow showers
Wunderground	Snow likely Thursday night and Friday
Accuweather	1-3 inches of snow, but potential for major storm
WFSB	A possible quick storm with light to moderate snow
WVIT	Snow showers possible
FOX CT	Another possible snow storm

24 hour forecast summary for next storm

UPDATE 1/18/11:  I've measured a strong 2 inches here in Avon prior to the changeover, possibly 2.5, but Accuweather was off by about 1/10 of an inch in their prediction for my town.  Pretty good. 

I'm going to now use the forecast for my location (Avon) as the baseline for the forecasts I list.  I will try to include additional predictions included for other parts of the state.

24 Hour Forecast

NWS	3-7 inches. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain
Weather Channel	3-5 inches: snow to sleet and freezing rain
Intellicast	3-5 inches: snow to mixed precip.
Wunderground	3-5 inches: snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain
Accuweather	1-3 inches: heavy snow to sleet and freezing rain (1.9 inches predicted specifically for Avon)
WFSB	2-5 inches: snow changing to sleet, freezing rain, and rain
WVIT	5-6” northwest; 2-5” inland; 1-2 at shore; wintry mix
FOX CT	3-6” NW of I-84; 1-3” SE of I-84; coating further SE (wintry mix)

Winter Storm Benedict - More Snowfall Totals (southern CT)

From the National Weather Service:

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS

                     SNOWFALL           OF

                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...

   NEW FAIRFIELD         28.0  1050 AM  1/12  PUBLIC

   NEWTOWN               27.0   840 AM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   WESTON                24.5   800 AM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   DANBURY               24.1   300 PM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   RIDGEFIELD            22.0   645 AM  1/12  PUBLIC

   3 SSE BROOKFIELD      22.0   730 AM  1/12  COCORAHS

   DANBURY               21.8  1000 AM  1/12  NWS COOP

   WILTON                18.7   830 AM  1/12  PUBLIC

   NEW CANAAN            18.0   915 AM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   DARIEN                17.5  1100 AM  1/12  CT DOT

   WESTPORT              17.4   815 AM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   SHELTON               17.3   950 AM  1/12  PUBLIC

   BRIDGEPORT            16.0   100 PM  1/12  NWS COOP

   NORWALK               16.0   934 AM  1/12  PUBLIC

   GREENWICH             15.5   250 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   STRATFORD             14.0   930 AM  1/12  PUBLIC

   STAMFORD              14.0   800 AM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

   HADDAM                22.0   214 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   PORTLAND              22.0   800 AM  1/13  COCORAHS

   EAST HADDAM           21.5   335 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   CLINTON               21.0  1200 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   WESTBROOK             20.5   915 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   DEEP RIVER            20.0  1100 AM  1/12  PUBLIC

   OLD SAYBROOK          17.5   300 PM  1/12  CT DOT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...

   NORTH HAVEN           30.5   630 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   MERIDEN               29.0   120 PM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   SOUTHBURY             28.0  1120 AM  1/12  PUBLIC

   CHESHIRE              25.5   300 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   GUILFORD              24.5   300 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   NORTH BRANFORD        24.0  1240 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   BETHANY               21.0  1220 PM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   SEYMOUR               20.0  1100 AM  1/12  PUBLIC

   WATERBURY             20.0   100 PM  1/12  CT DOT

   OXFORD                20.0   745 AM  1/12  PUBLIC

   BRANFORD              19.8  1230 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   NEW HAVEN             19.0  1100 AM  1/12  CT DOT

   MILFORD               18.0  1100 AM  1/12  CT DOT

   BEACON FALLS          17.3  1100 AM  1/12  CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...

   OLD LYME              24.0   800 AM  1/13  PUBLIC

   COLCHESTER            20.0   500 PM  1/12  CT DOT

   NORWICH               17.0   100 PM  1/12  CT DOT

   LISBON                16.9   300 PM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   QUAKER HILL           15.8   630 PM  1/12  COCORAHS

   NORTH FRANKLIN        15.5   715 PM  1/12  PUBLIC

   LEDYARD CENTER        15.0   300 PM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   GROTON                14.8   300 PM  1/12  CT DOT

   GALES FERRY           14.0   110 PM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   WATERFORD             13.0  1000 AM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

   STONINGTON            10.5   300 PM  1/12  SKYWARN SPOTTER

 

Winter Storm Benedict Record Breaker Report

From the National Weather Service:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

...GREATEST SNOWSTORM AND DAILY SNOWFALL TOTAL ON RECORD IN THE
GREATER HARTFORD AREA JANUARY 12 2011...

SNOWFALL AT BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN WINDSOR LOCKS CT
TOTALED 24.0 INCHES. THIS BEATS THE GREATEST SNOWSTORM TOTAL 21.9
INCHES WHICH OCCURRED FEBRUARY 12 2006. THIS ALSO BEATS THE GREATEST
DAILY SNOW TOTAL 21.9 INCHES ALSO OCCURRING FEBRUARY 12 2006.

OFFICIAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE HARTFORD AREA SINCE 1905.

ADDITIONAL NOTES...
THE PREVIOUS DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR JANUARY 12 WAS 10.3 INCHES.
THAT RECORD OCCURRED ON JANUARY 12 1996.

THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD AT LEAST PRIOR TO TODAY FOR THE STATE OF
CONNECTICUT IS 30 INCHES AND TOOK PLACE FEBRUARY 10 1969 AT FALLS
VILLAGE AND AT MIDDLETOWN 4 W ON MARCH 12 1888.

THE GREATEST SNOWSTORM TOTAL FOR THE STATE OF CONNECTICUT IS 50
INCHES AT MIDDLETOWN 4 W ON MARCH 12-14 1888...BETTER KNOWN AS THE
BLIZZARD OF 1888.

Winter Storm Benedict

Winter storm Benedict was a record breaker for the state hitting Bradley International Airport with about 24 inches of snow, breaking the 2006 record of around 21 inches.  As for me, I measured 15 inches on my deck in Avon, possibly 16 inches in the yard.  I never thought I'd feel left out of the snowfall jackpot with 15 inches of snow.


National Weather Service Snowfall Totals for Winter Storm Benedict

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

849 PM EST THU JAN 13 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE JANUARY

12 SNOWSTORM.  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS

STORM.  APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...

COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE

REPORTS.  THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT

WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS

                     SNOWFALL           OF

                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...HARTFORD COUNTY...

   MANCHESTER            27.0   554 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   GLASTONBURY           25.5   540 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   NEW BRITAIN           24.3   545 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   ELLINGTON             24.0   236 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   SIMSBURY              24.0   123 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   WINDSOR LOCKS         24.0   936 PM  1/12  BRADLEY AIRPORT

   BRISTOL               23.0  1120 AM  1/12  SPOTTER

   SOUTH WINDSOR         22.1   420 PM  1/12  NWS EMPLOYEE

   WEST HARTFORD         22.0   244 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   WETHERSFIELD          22.0   240 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   VERNON                21.6  1149 AM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   SUFFIELD              21.0   551 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   BURLINGTON            21.0   138 PM  1/12

   ENFIELD               21.0  1148 AM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   FARMINGTON            20.3   100 PM  1/12

   EAST HARTFORD         20.0  1158 AM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   BERLIN                18.0   159 PM  1/12

   EAST GRANBY           18.0   100 PM  1/12

   GRANBY                17.5  1150 AM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   SOUTHINGTON           17.0  1252 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   UNIONVILLE            16.2   139 PM  1/12

   GRANBY (2MI SW)       16.0  1245 PM  1/12  NWS EMPLOYEE

   NORTH GRANBY          14.8   730 PM  1/12

   AVON                  14.0   100 PM  1/12

...TOLLAND COUNTY...

   STAFFORDVILLE         29.0   726 PM  1/12

   TOLLAND               25.5   649 AM  1/13

   ELLINGTON             24.0   539 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   SOMERS                23.5   745 PM  1/12

   STAFFORD SPRINGS      23.3   755 PM  1/12

   VERNON                23.0   538 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   UNION                 19.0   300 PM  1/12

   STORRS                17.5   425 PM  1/12  SPOTTER

   MANSFIELD             17.0   100 PM  1/12

...WINDHAM COUNTY...

   POMFRET               22.0   825 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   EAST KILLINGLY        21.0   639 PM  1/12

   MOOSUP                21.0   620 PM  1/12  GENERAL PUBLIC

   ASHFORD               19.0   328 PM  1/12

   PUTNAM                17.0   300 PM  1/12

   DANIELSON             16.0   826 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   STERLING              15.7  1237 PM  1/12  HAM RADIO

   SCOTLAND              13.5   352 PM  1/12