Saturday, December 25, 2010

Post Christmas 2010 Snowstorm Forecasts (Winter Storm Adrianne)

Overall, all of the forecasting sites, local and national, have waffled on this forecast throughout the last week, with computer models giving variable predictions.  They have wavered between a large storm hitting all the major northeast corridors to more of a glancing blow.  Below are the online forecasts as of 6:40AM.  I will be using Bradley International Airport as the source for each forecast.  As you will see, not many of these sites have gone out on a limb in terms of predicting snow depth amounts 36 hours out.  I will update this post later with their updates. 

Update (1:03PM): No significant change in any of the forecasts reviewed, although there tends to be more of a consensus of a major winter storm affecting most of the northeast. 

Additional updates posted below.  Blizzard warning for southern portions of the state and winter storm warning for remainder of the state. 

NWS
Sunday: 50% chance of snow after 11AM, less than 1/2 inch accumulation (upgraded to 2-4 inches as of 430pm)
Sunday night: Snow likely (70%) (9-13 inches predicted as of 430pm)
Monday: Snow likely before 1PM


Intellicast
Sunday: PM snow and wind; 1-3 inches.  (1-2 inches as of 430pm) (2-4 inches at 10PM)
Sunday evening: Periods of snow and windy.  Significant snow accumulation possible.  (6-10 inches as of 10PM)
Monday: cloudy with snow

Accuweather
Sunday: snow showers in the afternoon
Sunday night: Varying accumulating snow; 4-8 inches
Monday: Snow tapering off with an addition 1-2 inches
Total snow accumulation predicted: 8.4 inches

 Update at 4:30: Neglible; total amount upgraded to 9.3 inches.

10:00pm Update: Snow late Sunday afternoon with morning blizzard; 10.2 inches predicted

Weather Channel
Sunday: Snow flurries becoming steadier with 1-3 inches (1-2 inches as of 430pm) (2-4 inches as of 10PM)
Sunday night: periods of snow and windy; significant snow accumulation possible (6-10 inches as of 430pm)
Monday: cloudy and windy with snow

Weather Underground
Sunday: cloudy with 50% chance of snow
Sunday night: snow likely (70%)
Monday: Snow likely

WFSB (CBS)
Sunday: snow developing during the afternoon and could become heavy at times at night.
Monday: Snowy and windy in the morning, ending in the afternoon

Update 430pm: WFSB names the storm Adrianne and characterizes it as a bomb with 10-20 inches total accumulation with 2 feet possible locally and 2-5 foot snow drifts!

WVIT (NBC)
Sunday: Snow developing, becoming heavy at times during the night.  Significant accumulation possible
Monday: Snow, possibly heavy at times; significant accumulation possible. 

Update as of 10PM: Snow becoming heavy at times on Sunday with wind gusts over 30mph.  Snow continuing through Sunday night with heavy snow into noon Monday.  Total possible accumulation of 12-18 inches with 20 inches to 2 feet locally. 

WTNH (ABC)
Sunday: Snow developing after 4pm
Sunday night: Snow, sleet, and freezing rain, accumulating 1-3 inches, then 4-6 inches overnight

430pm Update: Site is difficult to follow, but they appear to be predicting total accumulation of about 8-12 inches for inland areas and greater amounts closer to the shore. 

FOX61
Sunday: Increasing clouds, chance of snow at night
Monday: Chance of snow.

Update (4:30PM): Nothing online, but radio update calls for possible blizzard with 10-20 inches. 

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